returnt to the abyss

One interpretation of financial crises is that they are, in Nassim Taleb’s phrase, “black swan” events – unplanned and unpredictable occurrences that change the course of history. But, in my new book on financial crises, Crisis Economics – which covers not only the recent crisis, but also dozens of others throughout history and across both advanced economies and emerging markets – I show that financial crises are, instead, predictable “white swan” events. What is happening now – the second stage of the global financial crisis – was no less predictable.